DDS Weekly Maritime Intelligence — Issue 014

This Week at a Glance

Two lines were crossed this week. At sea, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was disabled by limpet mines attached from a small boat, which Euronews reports appears to be the first successful attack of its kind in this war; all 27 crew are safe. A second ship caught fire off Musandam and Oman's navy evacuated her 25 crew. In our own market, Singapore VLSFO rose above US$1,000/mt and is now more expensive than Fujairah, reversing a premium that stood above US$100 in September. With the US midterms on 3 November and reports that Washington has told Gulf allies to prepare for renewed strikes, next week carries more risk than this one.

• New attack method: the Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1 was hit by two explosive devices placed by a small boat off Khasab; engine-room fire, crew safe. The tanker Arzanah was hit by a projectile; crew safe.
• Claims, again: the IRGC says five more tankers hit mines or had "incidents" on routes it calls unauthorised. CENTCOM says the main lanes are clear of mines.
• Saudi Arabia: a fire at Ras Tanura refinery was contained; the Houthis claim strikes on Ras Tanura, Rabigh, Abqaiq and the East–West pipeline, which Riyadh has not confirmed.
• Diplomacy and deadlines: Vice President Vance wrote to Iran's Mohsen Rezaei and Qatar tabled a new draft deal, but reports say US allies were told to prepare for strikes after 3 November.
• Fuel: Singapore VLSFO above US$1,000; lead times about 13 days, some suppliers over three weeks; Port Klang prompt VLSFO very tight.

CEO Market Commentary

Capt. Dinesh Naidu KC — Founder & Chairman, DDS Marine Group

"When Singapore fuel costs more than Fujairah fuel, the war has reached our own bunker market."

This week a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was disabled by explosives attached to her hull from a small boat. It appears to be the first time in this war that such an attack has succeeded, and it changes the threat that crews face. Drones and missiles can be tracked; a small boat alongside at night is much harder to see. I am thankful that all 27 Indian seafarers aboard Louise 1 are safe, as are the 25 crew taken off a burning ship near Musandam by the Royal Navy of Oman.

The claims continue alongside the facts. Iran says five more tankers were struck on routes it does not recognise; CENTCOM says the main lanes are clear of mines. As I wrote last week, we act on what is verified, and we plan for what is claimed.

For our region, the most important number this week is in fuel. Singapore VLSFO has passed US$1,000 a tonne and is now slightly more expensive than in Fujairah. In September a buyer saved more than US$100 a tonne by taking fuel in Singapore. That advantage has gone. Lead times of about two weeks, and longer from some suppliers, mean that planning is now more important than price.

On freight, rates continued to ease as more ships became available, including tankers that until recently traded in the shadow fleet. That is good for charterers, but our counterparties must still be screened ship by ship.

Finally, the calendar. The US midterm elections are on Tuesday. Reports that Washington has told its Gulf allies to prepare for renewed strikes after the vote should be taken seriously. Owners with ships near the Gulf in the first half of November should review their plans now.

Publication Principle — Independent operational commentary based on publicly available information, official releases and wire reporting carried by named outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, Euronews, SAFETY4SEA, CBS News, oilprice.com), plus DDS Marine's own market intelligence. Every figure in this issue carries its source and, where applicable, a stated data cut-off. Iranian claims that have not been independently verified are labelled as such.

This Week in Review

The week's principal developments, 24–30 October 2026.

29–30 October · UKMTO / Euronews / Financial Times / Indian government — limpet mines disable a tanker in Hormuz; second ship ablaze off Musandam. A small boat attached two explosive devices to the Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1 about 25 nm north-east of Khasab on 29 October. The blasts caused an engine-room fire and temporarily disabled the ship; the fire was put out, all 27 Indian crew are safe, and she resumed her voyage. The Liberia-flagged tanker Arzanah was hit by a projectile the same day; her two Indian crew are safe. On 30 October a Panama-flagged vessel caught fire about 1.6 nm off Musandam and the Royal Navy of Oman evacuated 25 crew.

29–30 October · IRGC / SAFETY4SEA / CENTCOM — Iran claims five more tankers hit; US says lanes are clear of mines. The IRGC said three tankers struck mines on the southern route on 29 October, and that two more had "incidents" on unauthorised routes on 30 October; none was named. UKMTO relayed one sighting of a vessel on fire about 9 nm north of Khasab. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the main shipping lanes have been cleared of Iranian mines.

27–30 October · oilprice.com / CBS News / Al Jazeera — fire at Ras Tanura; Houthis claim strikes on Saudi refineries. A fire at the 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery on 27 October was quickly contained, Saudi authorities said. The Houthis then claimed strikes on Ras Tanura, Rabigh, Abqaiq, the East–West pipeline and two airports; Saudi Arabia has not confirmed them. Saudi-led forces said they shot down two ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh. Exxon and Chevron executives cancelled a Gulf visit on security grounds.

25–30 October · Reuters / WSJ / Axios / CBS News — talks and deadlines: Vance letter, Qatari draft, post-election strike planning. Qatar gave Iran a new draft deal on 25 October; an Iranian official called it "unacceptable", and a reply is expected this weekend. Vice President Vance wrote to Mohsen Rezaei about restarting talks. At the same time, US officials reportedly told Gulf allies to prepare for a brief but intense campaign after the 3 November midterms; President Trump has not made a final decision.

28–30 October · oilprice.com / Bloomberg / Vortexa — Europe releases oil; Qatar extends LNG force majeure; freight eases. European governments will release 42m barrels over three months, half of it diesel, as part of the IEA-coordinated programme. QatarEnergy extended its LNG force majeure to the end of 2026, and European gas reached its highest since 2022. Vortexa data show crude freight on long-haul routes to Asia about US$10/bbl below early-October peaks.

Hormuz & Gulf Attack Tracker

Confirmed incidents and unverified claims, 24–30 October 2026.

Pattern assessment: the attack on Louise 1 appears to be the first successful limpet-mine attack reported in the strait in this war (Euronews). Attacks from small boats are harder to detect than drones or missiles, and they put crews on deck and at the waterline at greater risk. The IMO count rose to 121 confirmed incidents by 27 October, with 24 seafarers killed. Iran insists ships use its northern routes; the US promotes the southern route.

Data Integrity & Methodology

How this week's numbers were sourced and cross-checked.

This was a thinner week for price data. No Integr8 report was available to us for Friday, and the Bunker Index pages could not be reached at our cut-off. Singapore prices therefore rest on two independent sources, ENGINE and OilPriceAPI, which agree within about US$20. Fujairah rests on a single source and is labelled as such.

Prices by source at the Friday 30 October cut-off

What this does not change: DDS does not reproduce third-party proprietary index values or route assessments. Freight sentiment is expressed as an independent 1–5 DDS score; freight costs, where quoted, are attributed to the organisation that published them.

Global Oil Market

Friday closes across two public sources; contract month disclosed; cut-off Friday 30 October 2026.

Oil spent the week pulled between diplomacy and the calendar. Prices dipped mid-week when Vice President Vance's letter to Iran and Qatar's new draft deal became public, then rose again on Friday after the limpet-mine attack, Iran's claims of new mine strikes and the Houthi claims against Saudi refineries. ANZ said Hormuz flows are running at about 60% of normal; Gulf crude exports, by contrast, are close to pre-war levels using alternative routes.

On the supply side, Europe will release 42m barrels over three months, half of it diesel, and UBS expects Brent near US$110 at the end of the year. ING said the risk premium could ease if there are no renewed strikes on Iran after 3 November. Oil companies reported large profits; BP posted a record quarter on refining and trading.

DDS BASE CASE

Brent trades US$108–125 next week, with the US elections on 3 November as the turning point. Renewed US strikes would push towards the top of the range; a Qatari-brokered step forward would push towards the bottom.

Commercial effect on shipping: keep voyage budgets flexible and fix fuel early.

Crude Tanker Market

VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax — DDS directional assessment, week ending 30 October 2026.

DDS Freight Sentiment Index — DDS Marine's own analytical assessment, not a third-party benchmark.

Freight eases, but from extraordinary levels. Vortexa data reported by Bloomberg show crude freight on the main long-haul routes to Asia about US$10/bbl below early-October peaks: US Gulf to South Korea peaked above US$42/bbl, Brazil to China above US$39 and West Africa to China above US$32. Chinese refiners are now buying more West African and Brazilian crude. US crude to Asia remains expensive to move.

More ships. Bloomberg reports that some former shadow-fleet VLCCs are now lifting crude from the Gulf after being delisted or licensed; US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says no sanctions have been removed and the ships will no longer carry sanctioned oil. Saudi shipowner Bahri reported third-quarter profit of US$1.36 billion, about ten times a year earlier.

DDS VIEW

VLCCs have now eased for three weeks, but earnings remain far above normal and stay at 5/5. If strikes resume after 3 November, the easing could reverse within days.

Source basis: Vortexa and Bloomberg (via oilprice.com), Bahri results, and DDS Marine intelligence. Directional only.

Clean & Product Tankers

DDS Clean Tanker Signal — directional assessment, week ending 30 October 2026.

Product tankers: shortages spread east. Europe's release of 42m barrels, half of it diesel, will add product to the Atlantic over the next three months, and France says its diesel will reach the market within days. In the US, oilprice.com reports heating oil prices up about 74% ahead of the midterms. In Asia the pressure is building: ENGINE reports VLSFO nearly depleted at Japan's main bunker ports, with term slots cancelled, and Japan is using US$7 billion from a state fund to hold down gasoline prices.

Refiners continue to benefit. BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, PetroChina and Sinopec all reported sharply higher third-quarter profits, much of it from refining and trading.

DDS VIEW

Product tankers stay at the top of our scale. The European release eases the Atlantic a little; in Asia, shortages in Japan and China point to more regional cargo movement.

Source basis: oilprice.com, ENGINE and DDS Marine operational and commercial intelligence. Directional only.

Bunker Market — Singapore & Fujairah

ENGINE and OilPriceAPI, 27–30 October 2026.

Singapore breaks US$1,000. Singapore VLSFO rose about US$58 on the week, according to ENGINE, and passed US$1,000/mt. ENGINE puts the October average at US$920, close to March's US$923, which was the highest monthly level since July 2022. HSFO's October average of US$840 is the highest since November 2021. LSMGO moved the other way, easing on the week.

Because VLSFO rose faster than HSFO, the Singapore Hi-5 spread (the VLSFO–HSFO price gap) widened again, from about US$44 last week to about US$96–104. Supply remains tight: ENGINE reports VLSFO lead times of about 13 days, with some suppliers quoting more than three weeks; HSFO about 10 days; LSMGO 9–11 days. At Port Klang, supply is constrained across grades and prompt VLSFO is particularly tight. Zhoushan has improved after the typhoon, with VLSFO lead times down to about 8 days.

The Fujairah Premium & Buyer Guidance

Premium over Singapore across recent issues.

The premium turns negative. For the first time in this series, Singapore VLSFO is more expensive than Fujairah VLSFO. ENGINE had Singapore at a US$5 premium on 27 October and a US$12 premium on 30 October. In late September, Fujairah was US$85–122 dearer. The change comes from Singapore, not Fujairah: ENGINE reports that VLSFO availability in Fujairah has improved, while Singapore's fuel-oil stocks have fallen and lead times have lengthened.

Other grades have not followed. Fujairah LSMGO remains roughly US$380–430 above Singapore, and Fujairah's Hi-5 spread of US$226 means high-sulphur fuel there is far cheaper than VLSFO.

What it means for buyers:

• Re-check where you bunker. For voyages that pass both hubs, price no longer favours Singapore for VLSFO. Weigh this against war-risk cover and anchorage risk near Fujairah.
• Book early. Singapore VLSFO lead times are about 13 days and longer with some suppliers; Port Klang prompt supply is very tight.
• Scrubber-fitted ships gain in Fujairah. A Hi-5 spread of US$226 there, against about US$100 in Singapore, favours HSFO lifting in the Gulf.
• Distillates still favour Singapore. LSMGO remains several hundred dollars cheaper than in Fujairah.

Geopolitical & Route Risk

Hormuz, the Gulf and Saudi Arabia.

A contest over routes. The attacks this week were concentrated off the Omani side of the strait, near Khasab and Musandam. Iran says ships must coordinate with its authorities and use routes close to its northern shore, and it describes the southern route as unauthorised. The US says the southern lanes have been cleared of mines and its forces will keep them open. For a master, that means neither route is free of risk.

Diplomacy continues in parallel. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday and Iran is expected to answer the new draft this weekend. Reports from Axios and AP describe US and Israeli planning for wider strikes after the election. JMIC said on 28 October that the US is blockading all Iranian ports and coastlines.

DDS RISK LEVEL: CRITICAL (unchanged)

Confirm war-risk and hull cover at nomination. For transits near Khasab and Musandam, increase night watches, use searchlights and anti-boarding measures, keep crews away from the waterline where possible, and report any approach by small craft to UKMTO at once. Review November voyage plans before 3 November.

Sanctions & Compliance Watch

Developments — week ending 30 October 2026

Former shadow-fleet tankers return: Bloomberg reports that VLCCs which previously carried Venezuelan crude are now lifting crude from the Gulf after being delisted or licensed. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says "there is no removing of sanctions" and that the ships will no longer carry sanctioned oil. The terms are not public in full.

US blockade: JMIC said on 28 October that the US is blockading all Iranian ports and coastlines.

No new OFAC Iran designations found this week. The 21 October action, which included the Singapore agency Amigoz Singapore PTE Ltd, remains the most recent; Treasury Secretary Bessent warned: "we will find you and sanction you."

Russian diesel: the first US-licensed Russian diesel cargo faces legal questions at its New York destination, according to oilprice.com.

Direct operational implication for DDS: a former shadow-fleet tanker may now be trading lawfully under a licence or after delisting, or it may not. Do not rely on a vessel's past or on press reports: check the current OFAC SDN list, ask for the licence where one is claimed, and keep the evidence. UANI's latest available count (22 October) showed about 24 tankers on its watch list at Malaysia's eastern OPL; its site could not be reached at this week's cut-off.

Editorial & Verification Note: DDS Marine Group publishes vessel and company names only where attributable to a named primary source. Readers should verify any specific vessel or entity against the current OFAC SDN list and their own screening provider before acting.

Southeast Asia & STS Operations

Malaysia · Singapore · China · Japan & Korea · Indonesia.

Fuel is the main story for our corridor this week. Singapore VLSFO passed US$1,000/mt and is now dearer than Fujairah, lead times remain long, and Port Klang's prompt supply is very tight. Further north, Japan's main ports are close to running out of VLSFO, while Zhoushan has recovered after the typhoon.

STS & marine-services operating standard

DDS VIEW

With Singapore fuel now dearer than Fujairah and lead times long, bunker planning has become part of voyage safety. We recommend confirming stems at least two weeks ahead for calls in our corridor.

DDS Freight Market Monitor

Independent DDS market sentiment — 1 = Weak | 2 = Soft | 3 = Balanced | 4 = Firm | 5 = Exceptionally Firm.

DDS Freight Sentiment Index, 30 October 2026 — DDS Marine's own analytical assessment, not a third-party benchmark.

DDS MARKET SIGNAL

VLCCs eased for a third week as more ships became available, but every tanker segment stays at 5/5. The next move depends on what follows the US elections on 3 November.

DDS Gas & Regional Monitor

Publication note: DDS scores are independent analytical opinions, not third-party benchmarks or executable freight quotations.

Editorial note: no period or time-charter fixtures were available to DDS this week.

Seven-Day Outlook — 31 October to 6 November 2026

Watch list:

• The US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November, and any decision on strikes that follows.
• Iran's reply to the Qatari draft, expected this weekend.
• Further small-boat or limpet-mine attacks, and whether they reach anchorages outside the strait.
• Whether Saudi Arabia confirms damage at Ras Tanura, Rabigh, Abqaiq or the East–West pipeline.
• Singapore VLSFO prices, lead times and the gap to Fujairah.

DDS CONCLUSION

The threat at sea has moved closer to the ship's side, with limpet mines placed from small boats. In our own region, Singapore fuel now costs more than Fujairah fuel. The coming week includes the US elections and a possible return to strikes. Plan bunkers early, screen every party, review November voyages and put crew safety first.

Sources & Disclaimer

DDS Weekly Maritime Intelligence combines public information, official releases, wire reporting carried by named outlets, and operator-focused analysis. Every price is shown with a stated cut-off and, where the source publishes one, a range. Where we hold more than one source for a benchmark, all are shown with the variance disclosed; where only one source is available, we say so. A price page is not used unless its figures can be shown to be current. Claims made by parties to the conflict are labelled until independently verified. DDS freight commentary is independent market analysis; proprietary third-party assessments are not reproduced unless authorised. DDS market sentiment indicators represent DDS Marine's own analytical assessment and are not third-party benchmarks.

What's changed since Issue 013 (23 October 2026): a tanker was disabled by limpet mines off Khasab, which appears to be the first such attack of the war, and a second ship burned off Musandam; all crews are safe. Iran claimed five more tankers hit. A fire broke out at Ras Tanura and the Houthis claimed further strikes on Saudi refineries. Washington wrote to Tehran while reportedly preparing allies for strikes after 3 November. Singapore VLSFO passed US$1,000 and is now dearer than Fujairah. VLCCs eased for a third week. Risk level remains CRITICAL.

Disclaimer — this publication is for general information only and is not investment, legal, sanctions, insurance, technical, navigational or chartering advice. Market indications can change without notice. Users must independently verify all data and obtain appropriate professional advice before acting. DDS Marine Group accepts no liability for decisions made solely on the basis of this publication.