DDS Weekly Maritime Intelligence — Issue 009

This Week at a Glance

Last week the bypass went down. This week it came back — and was shot at. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline on 22 September at a low rate, and two days later Houthi forces fired six ballistic missiles at Saudi targets including Yanbu, the Red Sea terminal the pipeline feeds. All were reported intercepted, but by Thursday no tanker had yet loaded at Yanbu. Meanwhile the Kingdom kept moving crude through Hormuz via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, which pulled roughly 40 VLCCs into a job that needed 24 in August and pushed VLCC earnings to a reported record near US$1.27 million a day. Oil briefly fell below US$100 on talk of a phased US–Iran deal to reopen Hormuz, then recovered to a weekly gain for Brent. For our region the practical message is unchanged: risk has not left the Gulf, it has spread along both of Saudi Arabia's coasts.

• Bypass back, under fire: the East-West pipeline restarted on 22 Sep at a low rate; on 24 Sep six Houthi missiles aimed at Yanbu, Taif and other targets were reported intercepted; no Yanbu loadings confirmed yet.
• Record VLCC earnings: about US$1.27m/day on 21 Sep (LSEG via Reuters) as Saudi STS volumes off Oman rose to about 3.6m bpd.
• Hormuz traffic still in single digits: 9 commodity vessels crossed on Thursday (Reuters), against a 10-day average of 17–18 and a pre-conflict norm above 125.
• Deal talk moves prices: Brent fell below US$100 on 22 Sep on a phased US–Iran reopening proposal, then recovered to about US$105 by Friday.
• Bunker sources disagree: Singapore VLSFO eased on the week; Fujairah's premium is US$85–122/mt, and our two sources differ on whether it widened.

CEO Market Commentary

Capt. Dinesh Naidu KC — Founder & Chairman, DDS Marine Group

"The bypass is back. The risk simply moved to the other coast."

Last week I wrote that the pipeline built to let Saudi Arabia avoid Hormuz had become a casualty of the war it was built to avoid. This week the pipeline came back: Aramco restarted it on Tuesday, at a low rate, and a first cargo was scheduled to load at Yanbu for China. By Thursday flows were building, but Kpler data show the two tankers due to load on 23 September did not. Meanwhile, Houthi missiles were fired at Yanbu. They were intercepted. But the market now has to price a Red Sea export route that is running again and is also a target.

What interests me more than the headlines is what Saudi Arabia did in the meantime. With Yanbu shut, the Kingdom sent crude back through Hormuz and transferred it ship-to-ship off Sohar in Oman — more than 60 million barrels sold for this kind of transfer, according to Reuters. Kpler puts September STS volumes at about 3.6 million barrels a day, up from 0.9 million in August. That is why VLCC rates set another record this week. The ships are not carrying more oil around the world; they are queuing longer to move it a short distance. STS operations near Hormuz are now taking close to ten days, where five to seven was normal.

For DDS, that point matters. Ship-to-ship transfer is our trade. What we are seeing off Oman is a live demonstration that when routes break, STS capacity — safe, well-planned, properly documented STS capacity — becomes the bottleneck of the whole system. The operators who can run it cleanly will be the ones charterers call first. In our own corridor that means planning, compatibility checks and documentation discipline, not only speed.

On prices, I would caution against reading too much into one week's moves. Brent fell to US$97.69 on Tuesday on talk of a phased US–Iran deal, then recovered to about US$105 by Friday. Nothing on the water has changed yet: Hormuz traffic is still in single digits most days, and the list of vessels Iran says it will act against has not shrunk. Until ships actually move, we plan on the basis of the risk we can see, not the deal we are told about.

Our Data Integrity practice earned its keep this week. Our two bunker sources disagree on whether the Fujairah premium widened or narrowed, and on Singapore HSFO by more than US$50. The Data Integrity section below shows both rather than choosing one.

Publication Principle — Independent operational commentary based on publicly available information, official releases and wire reporting carried by named outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, oilprice.com, Hellenic Shipping News), plus DDS Marine's own market intelligence. Every figure in this issue carries its source and, where applicable, a stated data cut-off.

This Week in Review

The week's principal developments, 19–25 September 2026.

22 September · Reuters / Hydrocarbon Processing — Saudi Arabia restarts the East-West pipeline. Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline on Tuesday, nine days after drone attacks on pumping stations forced it to shut on 13 September. It was pumping at a low rate after the restart; Aramco is reported to be aiming for its normal ~4m bpd, and a security source said full resumption could take weeks. By Thursday Reuters reported flows building towards Yanbu, but Kpler data showed the two tankers due to load there on 23 September did not (via Integr8). About 20 tankers were reported waiting in the Red Sea.

24 September · Al Jazeera / Bloomberg — Houthi missiles fired at Yanbu and Taif; all reported intercepted. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted six ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis at targets including Taif and Yanbu. The Houthis said they targeted Aramco facilities in Yanbu and a "sensitive target" in Riyadh. Civil-defence alerts were issued for Mecca, Jeddah, Tabuk, Yanbu and Taif, then lifted. The reports we reviewed did not describe damage to export facilities.

21–25 September · Reuters / LSEG / Kpler (via oilprice.com, MarineLink) — VLCC earnings set a record as Oman STS capacity maxes out. VLCC earnings reached about US$1.27m/day on Monday, per LSEG data, easing only slightly to US$1.26m later in the week. Saudi crude moved by STS off Oman averaged about 3.6m bpd in September against 0.9m bpd in August (Kpler), needing about 40 VLCCs instead of 24 (Oil Brokerage). Vortexa said STS queues near Hormuz are lengthening, with operations taking close to ten days.

22–25 September · oilprice.com / Iran International / Bloomberg — phased US–Iran deal to reopen Hormuz under discussion. A senior Iranian official told Kyodo that Hormuz could reopen within seven days if the US ended its blockade of Iranian ports and halted military operations. Brent fell below US$100 on the report. Qatar-mediated talks followed on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, with both sides reported to be exploring a phased arrangement. No agreement had been announced at our cut-off.

23 September · Al Arabiya / UKMTO — bulk carrier struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The bulk carrier Cape Dao, bound for India, was hit by an unknown projectile off Musandam. Oman's Maritime Security Centre evacuated the 27 crew; the Indian embassy confirmed one Indian seafarer lost his life. Our thoughts are with his family and colleagues.

Data Integrity & Methodology

How this week's numbers were sourced and cross-checked.

Issue 008 introduced a standing Data Integrity practice after our team flagged, correctly, that figures moved between issues without explanation. This section records how each rule was applied this week.

Cross-check: Ship & Bunker (Thu 24 Sep) vs Integr8 (Fri 25 Sep)

Worked example this issue: the Fujairah premium. On Ship & Bunker's index it is US$122/mt, up from about US$108 in Issue 008 — a widening. On Integr8's Friday indications it is US$85/mt, down from US$95 on the same basis — a narrowing. Each is consistent with its own data; they differ by a day and by method. We report the premium as US$85–122/mt and make no claim about direction this week. Both sources agree that Fujairah remains well above Singapore.

What this does not change: DDS does not reproduce Baltic Exchange's proprietary index values or route assessments. Freight sentiment is expressed as an independent 1–5 DDS score (see DDS Freight Market Monitor). Where freight earnings are quoted, they are attributed to the named outlet that published them (for example, LSEG data as reported by Reuters), in the same way we attribute any other wire report.

Global Oil Market

Friday bands across two public sources; contract month disclosed; cut-off Friday 25 September 2026.

This was a week of two-way risk. On Tuesday a senior Iranian official floated reopening Hormuz within seven days if the US lifted its blockade of Iranian ports; combined with the East-West pipeline restart the same day, that took Brent below US$100 for the first time since 9 September. By Thursday, Houthi missiles fired at Yanbu, and reports that the talks might be phased rather than immediate, had pushed it back up to about US$107 before it settled near US$105 on Friday.

Underneath the headlines, supply is still tight. Saudi output was reported at its lowest since 1990, US strategic reserves remain near record lows, and diesel is the tightest part of the barrel: US retail diesel is at about US$6.50 a gallon, Russia has banned diesel exports through September, and India says it will keep exporting despite the shortage. The Federal Reserve's rate rise last week adds a demand-side headwind, but not yet enough to offset the supply picture.

DDS BASE CASE

Brent holds a wide US$97–110 band while the phased-deal talks run. A confirmed first step (US blockade eased, Hormuz traffic visibly rising) would test the low end quickly; renewed damage at Yanbu or a failure of talks would test the top.

Commercial effect on shipping: treat voyage estimates built on a single oil price with caution. Build bunker and freight budgets on a range.

Crude Tanker Market

VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax — DDS directional assessment, week ending 25 September 2026.

DDS Freight Sentiment Index — DDS Marine's own analytical assessment, not a third-party benchmark.

The Oman STS surge. Saudi crude moved by ship-to-ship transfer off Oman averaged about 3.6m bpd in September against 0.9m bpd in August (Kpler), requiring roughly 40 VLCCs instead of 24 (Oil Brokerage), as reported by Reuters via oilprice.com and MarineLink.

VLCC. Earnings set a new record near US$1.27m/day on Monday (LSEG via Reuters) and hardly moved afterwards. Gibson Shipbrokers, cited by The DeepDraft, put Middle East–China earnings above US$1.2m/day. The cause is inefficiency, not volume: Vortexa estimates global crude departures are still about 5m bpd below pre-war levels, while STS outside Hormuz runs at over 6m bpd.

Suezmax and Aframax. Vortexa notes that high VLCC rates in the Atlantic are pushing traders toward Suezmaxes and smaller ships, which is lifting the mid-size segments and may cap further VLCC gains. We have moved Aframax to 5/5 this week.

DDS VIEW

The VLCC market is now pricing time, not distance. Any real easing at Hormuz would release shuttle tonnage quickly, so do not extrapolate today's earnings into long-term commitments. For STS, the lesson is the opposite: capacity and turnaround are the constraint, and that is where operational discipline earns its premium.

Source basis: LSEG (via Reuters), Gibson (via The DeepDraft), Vortexa (via HSN), Kpler and Oil Brokerage (via Reuters), DDS Marine intelligence. Directional only.

Clean & Product Tankers

DDS Clean Tanker Signal and Pacific/Atlantic split — directional assessment, week ending 25 September 2026.

Pacific / Atlantic: both moving up. The Pacific/Atlantic split we have tracked since Issue 007 is still there, but both sides moved up a notch this week. Pacific MR employment moved up to our top score, helped by Asian diesel demand and India's decision to keep exporting. Atlantic MR improved again on high Western diesel prices. The gap is unchanged at one point on our scale, but it now sits between Firm and Exceptionally Firm rather than between Balanced and Firm. Neither side is weakening; the whole product-tanker market has moved up.

DDS VIEW

For owners and operators in our corridor, intra-Asia clean employment is now as firm as we score it. It remains the better risk-adjusted trade because it avoids the Gulf's war-risk costs and STS queues. Compare the net result of each voyage, not headline rates.

Source basis: public reporting (oilprice.com, Vortexa via Hellenic Shipping News), market-reported fixtures and DDS Marine operational and commercial intelligence. Directional only.

Bunker Market — Singapore & Global Benchmark

Ranges, not points — Ship & Bunker High/Low/index (24 Sep) with Integr8 Friday 25 September indications.

Singapore eased on the week; the Gulf picture depends on source. Singapore VLSFO closed at US$874.00 on the latest assessment, down US$39.50 from the 913.50 we reported in Issue 008, with most of the fall on 21 September. Singapore MGO fell further, from about US$1,446 to US$1,325. Fujairah eased less (VLSFO US$1,022 to US$996), so on Ship & Bunker's data the gap between the two hubs widened; Integr8's Friday figures tell a different story (see below). Globally, the 20-port VLSFO average stands at US$881 and the four-port average at US$830.50.

Singapore's own sales data (MPA, via Ship & Bunker) show August volumes of 4.71m mt, down 3.8% year on year but still on record pace for the year to date at 37.77m mt. HSFO's share rose to 44% as owners with scrubbers took advantage of the price gap.

Singapore Range & the Fujairah Premium

Daily range and hub spread — Ship & Bunker with Integr8 cross-check.

Why the range matters. On 21 September Singapore VLSFO traded anywhere between US$773 and US$882 — a US$109 spread in one day — while the index close was US$857. A buyer quoting only the index would not have seen that spread. This is why we report ranges.

The Fujairah premium: still large, direction unclear. On Ship & Bunker's index, Fujairah VLSFO sits about US$122/mt above Singapore, up from about US$108 in Issue 008. On Integr8's Friday indications the premium is US$85/mt (980 vs 895), down from US$95 on the same basis. We therefore report US$85–122/mt and make no claim about direction this week. Fujairah already carried a small premium in Issue 005 (US$7); what has changed since then is its size, and on either source it remains large.

For vessels trading between the Gulf and Asia, the case for loading bunkers in Singapore or elsewhere in our corridor rather than in the Gulf remains strong, subject to operational range and schedule.

Compliance cost note: EU ETS exposure remains a separate line item on EU-linked voyages; state it explicitly in freight and bunker clauses.

Geopolitical & Route Risk

Hormuz and the Red Sea — both Saudi export routes now carry active military risk.

Two coasts, one risk. For most of this year the Red Sea route out of Yanbu was the safe alternative to Hormuz. This week showed that it is not safe, only different. The Houthis, who declared a naval blockade in July and have since taken control of Yemen's western coast (Al Jazeera), have moved from ships to the terminal itself. At the same time, the Hormuz route that Saudi Arabia fell back on is congested and still sees attacks, including the strike on Cape Dao on 23 September.

The phased-deal talks are the main upside risk. Iran has signalled that Hormuz could reopen within a week if the US ends its blockade of Iranian ports; a White House official said the US had "little need to negotiate" given its position. Until traffic numbers actually rise, we treat the talks as sentiment, not supply.

Hormuz daily commodity-vessel transits: 9 on Thursday and 11 on Wednesday (Reuters), against a 10-day average of 17–18 and a pre-conflict norm above 125 (The National, UANI).

DDS RISK LEVEL: CRITICAL (unchanged)

Both Saudi export routes now carry active military risk. DDS recommends treating Yanbu-linked fixtures with the same war-risk and security checks as Gulf-linked fixtures, confirming war-risk terms at the time of nomination, and pricing STS exposure on Saudi-origin cargo with realistic turnaround times of up to ten days.

Sanctions & Compliance Watch

Developments — week ending 25 September 2026

Iran's blacklist holds at 77–78 vessels. Windward counts 77 vessels on the Persian Gulf Strait Authority list, about 85% of them tankers and roughly 40% Emirati-owned or chartered. Issue 008 reported 78; the difference most likely reflects how duplicate or removed listings are counted. Windward's assessment is that listed ships are not being deterred, which increases the risk of enforcement action by Iran against individual vessels.

US blockade of Iranian ports continues. UANI reports that US forces had redirected 110 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two as of 21 September, and that at least 64 tankers loaded with Iranian oil are clustered along Iran's coast.

OFAC: Treasury issued Iran-related designations on 17 September, after our last cut-off. No new Iran-related vessel actions appeared on OFAC's recent-actions list between 18 and 25 September.

Cyber: reporting from Cybernews on 21 September adds detail to the tanker cyber incidents covered in Issue 008. The FBI and US Coast Guard are examining reports that attackers briefly affected safety and control systems on an LNG carrier and two Texas-bound tankers, and are investigating possible links to Iran.

Direct operational implication for DDS: UANI reports 14 Iranian-flagged cargo ships anchored or loitering off Malaysia's eastern OPL, and two named vessels at Port Klang. Screening of counterparties and vessels in our own waters is no longer a formality.

Editorial & Verification Note: DDS Marine Group publishes vessel names and designation detail only where attributable to a named primary source. Readers should verify any specific vessel against the current Iranian list, the OFAC SDN list and their own screening provider before acting.

Weekly Incident & Risk Watch

Confirmed and declared incidents, 19–25 September 2026.

Pattern assessment: the threat now covers four fronts in one week: projectile strikes on merchant ships at Hormuz, missile attacks on an export terminal in the Red Sea, dark loadings at the bypass terminal itself, and cyberattacks on ships at sea. Security planning for one front at a time will miss the others.

What we are watching:

• Whether the East-West pipeline reaches full flow, and whether Yanbu loadings resume at scale despite the Houthi threat.
• Whether the phased-deal talks produce a visible first step, such as an easing of the US port blockade or a rise in daily transits.
• Whether STS queues off Sohar lengthen further, and whether any incident occurs in the STS anchorages.
• Whether P&I and war-risk underwriters issue new guidance for Red Sea terminals as opposed to transits.

Ship recycling & demolition. Hellenic Shipping News' weekly recycling review (24 September, citing cash buyer Best Oasis and Intermodal) describes the market as "retaining strength": India firm, Bangladesh slowing, Pakistan soft, Turkey slightly improved. Strong freight markets continue to limit the supply of older tonnage, since owners are still choosing to trade older ships rather than scrap them.

Southeast Asia & STS Operations

Malaysia · Singapore · Indonesia · Thailand · Vietnam — the Malacca-to-Pengerang corridor.

Two developments this week have direct consequences for our corridor. First, Singapore VLSFO fell on the week while Fujairah's premium stays large at US$85–122/mt depending on source, which supports the case for bunkering here on Gulf–Asia voyages. Second, the Oman STS bottleneck shows what happens when STS capacity is short: queues of up to ten days and record earnings. Operators who can offer safe, well-documented STS capacity will be in demand wherever cargo has to change ships.

STS & marine-services operating standard

DDS VIEW

The queues off Sohar are a warning about what happens when STS demand grows faster than safe capacity. If disruption continues, DDS expects more tonnage and cargo interest in this corridor, and our standard must hold when volumes rise. That means planning and screening discipline, not simply faster turnarounds.

DDS Freight Market Monitor

Independent DDS market sentiment — 1 = Weak | 2 = Soft | 3 = Balanced | 4 = Firm | 5 = Exceptionally Firm.

DDS Freight Sentiment Index, 25 September 2026 — DDS Marine's own analytical assessment, not a third-party benchmark.

DDS MARKET SIGNAL

For the first time in this series, every tanker segment we track scores Firm or better. Middle East Gulf-linked markets remain the strongest part of the board, but the story has broadened: diesel scarcity is now lifting product tankers in both basins. Risk, availability and turnaround time remain the main freight drivers.

DDS Gas & Regional Monitor

Publication note: DDS scores are independent analytical opinions, not third-party benchmarks or executable freight quotations.

Editorial note: no fresh period or time-charter fixtures were available to DDS for this issue; the standing period-market section will return when fresh fixtures are confirmed.

Seven-Day Outlook — 26 September to 2 October 2026

Watch list:

• Whether the East-West pipeline returns to full flow, and Yanbu loadings resume at scale.
• Whether the US–Iran phased-deal talks produce a verifiable first step within Iran's "four to five day" window.
• Whether daily Hormuz transits move back into double digits consistently.
• Whether VLCC earnings hold above US$1m/day or start to ease as Suezmaxes take share.
• Whether Ship & Bunker and Integr8 converge on the Fujairah premium, and whether their US$50+ gap on Singapore HSFO closes.

DDS CONCLUSION

Issue 008 showed the bypass failing. Issue 009 shows it running again, but under fire, while the route it was meant to replace is congested with ships transferring cargo that would normally sail straight through. Talks may change this quickly. Until they do, we plan on the basis of the risk we can see: ranges not points, screening before speed, and STS capacity as the constraint that sets the price.

Sources & Disclaimer

DDS Weekly Maritime Intelligence combines public information, official releases, wire reporting carried by named outlets, and operator-focused analysis. Every price is shown with a stated cut-off and, where the source publishes one, a daily range. Where we hold more than one source for a benchmark, both are shown with the variance disclosed. DDS freight commentary is independent market analysis prepared from publicly available information, market-reported fixtures and operational intelligence. Proprietary third-party assessments are not reproduced unless authorised. DDS market sentiment indicators represent DDS Marine's own analytical assessment and are not third-party benchmarks.

What's changed since Issue 008 (18 September 2026): Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on 22 September at a low rate, and Houthi missiles were fired at Yanbu two days later. VLCC earnings set a new record near US$1.27m/day as Saudi STS volumes off Oman quadrupled. Brent fell below US$100 on phased-deal talk, then recovered to about US$105. The Fujairah–Singapore VLSFO premium is US$85–122/mt, and our two bunker sources disagree on its direction. Every tanker segment DDS tracks now scores Firm or better. Both bunker sources are shown where they diverge. Risk level remains CRITICAL.

Disclaimer — this publication is for general information only and is not investment, legal, sanctions, insurance, technical, navigational or chartering advice. Market indications can change without notice. Users must independently verify all data and obtain appropriate professional advice before acting. DDS Marine Group accepts no liability for decisions made solely on the basis of this publication.