DDS Weekly Maritime Intelligence — Issue 010

This Week at a Glance

The Gulf is shipping more oil than at any point since the war began, and the risk of shipping it has not fallen. Middle East exports reached about 12.8 million barrels a day in September, Yanbu loadings resumed, and Indian refiners have started chartering ships to lift Gulf crude through Hormuz themselves. In the same week three tankers were struck in the Strait, the US ordered a third aircraft carrier towards Iran, and China halted most October fuel exports. G7 governments responded to the diesel shortage with a 100-million-barrel reserve release, which briefly pushed Brent below US$100. For our corridor the message is: volumes are coming back faster than safety is, and the diesel shortage is now a global problem, not only a Gulf one.

• Exports recover, attacks continue: Gulf oil exports about 12.8m bpd in September (Kpler), while three Liberia-flagged tankers were struck in Hormuz on 29–30 Sep.
• Yanbu back in business: loadings resumed late in the week of 22 Sep; pipeline throughput is reported at 2–2.65m bpd, against a 7m bpd capacity.
• Diesel becomes the crisis: China halted most October fuel exports, Russia extended its diesel export ban to 31 Oct, and the G7 agreed to release up to 100m barrels.
• US military build-up: a third carrier group and 9,000–10,000 more troops ordered to the region; Patriot batteries sent to protect Saudi and Qatari energy sites.
• Bunker sources diverge: Fujairah VLSFO quoted from US$947.50 to US$1,241 across three sources; Singapore eased to US$789 on Ship & Bunker's index.

CEO Market Commentary

Capt. Dinesh Naidu KC — Founder & Chairman, DDS Marine Group

"When every gauge reads maximum, read the gauges more carefully."

Two weeks ago the bypass failed. Last week it came back. This week the Gulf exported more oil than at any time since the war began — about 12.8 million barrels a day in September, according to Kpler — and Yanbu is loading again. If you only read the volume numbers, you would think the worst was over.

It is not. On 29 and 30 September three tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops, and has moved Patriot batteries to protect Saudi and Qatari energy facilities. Iran's foreign minister says his country is "fully prepared" to resume the conflict. Oil is moving because buyers need it badly enough to accept the risk, not because the risk has gone. Indian refiners have even begun hiring ships to bring Gulf crude through Hormuz themselves.

The bigger story this week is diesel. China has stopped most of its October fuel exports. Russia has extended its diesel ban to the end of the month. The G7 has agreed to release up to 100 million barrels, half of it diesel. That is a crisis response, and it tells you where the real shortage is. It is also why every tanker segment on our DDS scale now sits at the top. For the first time in this series, we score every segment Exceptionally Firm.

I want to be careful with that result. When every reading is at maximum, the scale stops telling you which market is strongest, and the risk becomes the fall. We will watch closely for the first segment to come off the top.

I would apply the same caution to prices. This week our three bunker sources gave Fujairah VLSFO anywhere from about US$948 to US$1,241. Two of them agree; one does not. We do not choose quietly between them. The Data Integrity section below explains how we handled it.

Publication Principle — Independent operational commentary based on publicly available information, official releases and wire reporting carried by named outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Axios, oilprice.com, Seatrade Maritime), plus DDS Marine's own market intelligence. Every figure in this issue carries its source and, where applicable, a stated data cut-off.

This Week in Review

The week's principal developments, 26 September – 2 October 2026.

28–30 September · Reuters / Kpler (via oilprice.com) — Middle East oil exports reach their highest since the war began. Gulf oil exports averaged about 12.8m bpd in September, against roughly 17m bpd before the war, with Saudi Arabia at about 5.4m bpd. Kpler put Hormuz flows at about 77% of pre-war levels. LNG lagged: about 21 cargoes passed through Hormuz in September, against more than 90 a month before the war, and Qatar has extended force majeure through November.

29–30 September · Seatrade / MarineLink / TankerTrackers — Yanbu loadings resume after the pipeline restart. Loadings at Yanbu restarted late in the week of 22 September. Satellite imagery showed nearly 10m barrels being loaded at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz on 27 September. Pipeline throughput is reported at 2–2.65m bpd, against a 7m bpd capacity, and full recovery could take another month. A VLCC fixture from the Red Sea to South Korea was reported this week (see Crude Tanker Market).

29–30 September · UKMTO / Marisks / Reuters / Windward — three tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Al Ruwais and Mersin Prosperity, both managed by ADNOC Logistics & Services, and the Aframax Sinbad, managed by Anglo-Eastern, were hit by unknown projectiles. All three are Liberia-flagged. One fire was extinguished and all crew are safe. Windward reports that at least two were transiting with AIS switched off.

1–2 October · oilprice.com / Bloomberg / NBC / The National — diesel crisis: China halts exports, G7 releases reserves. China's major refiners suspended most October fuel exports to protect domestic supply; Kpler estimates China's diesel stocks are about 20m barrels below pre-war levels. Russia extended its producers' diesel and marine fuel export ban to 31 October. On 2 October the G7 agreed to release up to 100m barrels over four months — 50m of diesel from Europe and 50m of crude through the IEA.

1–2 October · Al Jazeera / Bloomberg / Axios / US Treasury — US builds up forces and widens sanctions. A third carrier group and 9,000–10,000 more sailors and Marines have been ordered towards Iran, and two more Patriot batteries were sent to protect Saudi and Qatari energy sites. Washington rejected Iran's seven-day roadmap to reopen Hormuz and sanctioned Iran's automotive, rail and metals sectors on 1 October. Indirect talks continue without a breakthrough.

Data Integrity & Methodology

How this week's numbers were sourced, and how we handled disagreement between sources.

This week each of our bunker sources produced one figure that the others do not support. We set out what we found and what we did about it, rather than choosing between sources without saying so.

Where the sources disagree

Correction & clarification: Issue 009 dated the East-West pipeline shutdown 13 September (The National). Reports this week date the attack to 11 September (Seatrade, MarineLink) or 10 September (Integr8). The shutdown and the attack may fall on different days; we will use the Reuters-based date of 11 September for the attack from now on. Iran's vessel blacklist, reported as 77–78 in Issue 009, now stands at 81 (Seatrade, 28 September).

Global Oil Market

Friday bands across two public sources; contract month disclosed; cut-off Friday 2 October 2026.

Crude and diesel are now telling different stories. Crude supply is improving: Gulf exports are at their highest since the war began, and Kpler puts Hormuz flows at about 77% of pre-war levels. That, plus the G7 release, is why Brent ended the week lower despite the US military build-up and fresh tanker strikes.

Diesel is the tightest part of the barrel. China has halted most October fuel exports, Russia's ban runs to 31 October, and several Middle East and Russian refineries remain damaged. Before the G7 announcement, European diesel futures were above US$200 a barrel and the diesel premium over crude was about US$77; it narrowed to about US$69 afterwards (oilprice.com). The release adds barrels but, as oilprice.com notes, "does not add refinery capacity." OPEC+ meets on 4 October and is expected to leave quotas unchanged.

DDS BASE CASE

Brent trades in a US$95–108 band. Rising Gulf exports and the G7 release cap the upside; the US build-up and continuing tanker strikes support the floor.

Commercial effect on shipping: diesel, not crude, is now driving product-tanker earnings and bunker costs. Budget gasoil-linked costs on a range, and expect further volatility.

Crude Tanker Market

VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax — DDS directional assessment, week ending 2 October 2026.

DDS Freight Sentiment Index — DDS Marine's own analytical assessment, not a third-party benchmark.

VLCC. Earnings stayed at the very top of the range, with two separate supports: the Saudi STS shuttle off Oman, where Seatrade estimates about 15% of VLCC capacity is waiting, and the restart of Yanbu, where satellite imagery showed about 40 tankers nearby. Houthi threats still keep VLCCs out of the southern Red Sea, so Yanbu cargoes bound for Asia are going via Suez, which lengthens voyages.

Suezmax and Aframax. Suezmax sentiment moved up sharply this week as Atlantic charterers continued to switch down from VLCCs. Indian refiners are now chartering third-party tankers to lift Gulf crude through Hormuz, which adds mid-size demand.

Reported fixture (market reported / subject to confirmation)

DDS VIEW

With all three crude segments at the top of our scale, the useful question is no longer which is strongest but which will ease first. Our view: VLCCs, if Hormuz traffic normalises and releases the Oman shuttle tonnage. Avoid long-term commitments priced on this week's earnings.

Source basis: Seatrade Maritime, MarineLink, Marine Insight, Kpler (via Reuters), and DDS Marine operational and commercial intelligence. Directional only.

Clean & Product Tankers

DDS Clean Tanker Signal and Pacific/Atlantic split — directional assessment, week ending 2 October 2026.

Pacific / Atlantic: the gap has closed. For the first time since we began tracking it in Issue 007, there is no gap between Pacific and Atlantic MR on our scale: both now score 5/5. Atlantic MR moved up as the diesel shortage spread to Europe and the US, where China's export halt and Russia's extended ban remove barrels the West had been importing. The G7 release will add diesel over four months, but tankers will be needed to move much of it.

DDS VIEW

Intra-Asia clean employment remains the better risk-adjusted trade for our corridor because it avoids Gulf war-risk costs and STS queues. With Atlantic MR now equally firm, check positioning and ballast costs before switching basins.

Source basis: public reporting (oilprice.com, Bloomberg, NBC, Kpler via Reuters) and DDS Marine operational and commercial intelligence. Directional only.

Bunker Market — Singapore & Global Benchmark

Ranges, not points — Ship & Bunker High/Low/index with Integr8 Friday 2 October indications.

* Integr8 Singapore figures are unchanged or nearly unchanged from last week and well above Integr8's own Singapore paper; treated as possibly not updated (see Data Integrity & Methodology).

Singapore fell again; most hubs followed. Singapore VLSFO fell to US$789.00 on Ship & Bunker's index, down US$85 from the 874.00 we reported in Issue 009. MGO fell further, from US$1,325 to US$1,137, and IFO380 from US$711.50 to US$630. The 20-port VLSFO average is down to US$855.50. Integr8's Singapore paper points the same way: its October 0.5% FOB swap is US$782.94, down from US$806.90 a week ago, and the curve falls to US$682.20 by January.

Fujairah is the exception, and the sources disagree about how far it is out of line (see below). Singapore's fall and the diesel crisis pull in opposite directions for MGO buyers: physical gasoil in Asia is under pressure from China's export halt, so the drop in Singapore MGO may not last.

The Fujairah Premium

Corroborated figures only — Ship & Bunker, Integr8 and Bunker Index.

Wider, on any reasonable reading. Using the two Fujairah figures that agree — Integr8's US$980 and Bunker Index's US$947.50 — against Ship & Bunker's Singapore index of US$789, the premium is US$158–191/mt, up from US$85–122 in Issue 009. Ship & Bunker's own Fujairah price would put it at about US$452, and Integr8's own pair at US$85; we do not rely on either because no second source supports them.

Last week the two sources disagreed on the direction of the premium. This week, every combination we can build from corroborated figures shows it wider. That is the more important finding.

What it means for buyers. For vessels trading between the Gulf and Asia, bunkering in Singapore or elsewhere in our corridor rather than in Fujairah now saves more than US$150/mt on VLSFO on corroborated figures, subject to range and schedule. With Singapore MGO also lower, the saving extends to distillates. Ask for firm Fujairah quotes before assuming any published index applies; this week's spread between sources shows how thin and fast-moving that market is.

Compliance cost note: EU ETS exposure remains a separate line item on EU-linked voyages; state it explicitly in freight and bunker clauses.

Geopolitical & Route Risk

Hormuz and the Red Sea — exports recovering under fire.

Gulf oil exports have recovered faster than LNG: about 12.8m bpd of oil in September against roughly 17m bpd pre-war, while only about 21 LNG cargoes passed through Hormuz against more than 90 a month before the war (Kpler, as reported by Reuters via oilprice.com).

DDS RISK LEVEL: CRITICAL (unchanged)

Measures of recovery range from about 77% of pre-war Hormuz flows (Kpler) to 98% of pre-war Gulf exports (Marine Insight), depending on what is counted. On any measure, flows are rising faster than the threat is falling. Exports are recovering under fire, and the US build-up raises the risk of renewed strikes. Confirm war-risk terms at nomination, treat dark transits as no protection against attack, and keep realistic STS turnaround times of up to ten days on Saudi-origin cargo.

Sanctions & Compliance Watch

Developments — week ending 2 October 2026

Iran's blacklist rises to 81 vessels. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority added four ships, including two Sinokor VLCCs and a Bahri VLCC, and warned that charterers who press owners to transit without its approval will have "all their vessels' transits restricted" (Seatrade, 28 September). OFAC has separately warned that complying with Iran's procedures may itself breach US sanctions.

US Treasury, 1 October: new sanctions target Iran's automotive, rail, metals and steel sectors. No vessels were designated in this action.

US blockade: UANI reports 125 commercial vessels redirected since 14 July, three disabled and two boarded. No crude-laden Iranian tanker has been tracked past the blockade since 12 July.

Charterer exposure: the PGSA warning is new. Charterers, not only owners, can now be listed. Combined with OFAC's position, this leaves charterers facing conflicting demands from Tehran and Washington on the same voyage.

Direct operational implication for DDS: UANI reports that Malaysian authorities carried out enforcement action at the eastern OPL anchorage in September, after which about 26 sanctions-linked tankers moved north. Around 18–19 such tankers remain at the EOPL, together with Iran-flagged ships. Screening in our own waters remains essential.

Editorial & Verification Note: DDS Marine Group publishes vessel names and designation detail only where attributable to a named primary source. Readers should verify any specific vessel against the current Iranian list, the OFAC SDN list and their own screening provider before acting.

Weekly Incident & Risk Watch

Confirmed and declared incidents, 26 September – 2 October 2026.

Pattern assessment: at least two of the three tankers struck this week were transiting with AIS off. Going dark has not prevented attack. UANI counts 89 maritime incidents and 24 seafarer deaths since the war began.

What we are watching:

• Whether the arrival of additional US forces is followed by renewed strikes on Iran, and how Iran responds at sea.
• Whether attacks extend to the STS anchorages off Oman, where a large share of VLCC capacity is waiting.
• Whether the PGSA lists named charterers, and how P&I clubs respond.
• Whether Houthi attacks resume against Yanbu traffic now that loadings have restarted.

Ship recycling & demolition. GMS's weekly report (26 September, via Hellenic Shipping News) reported no fresh recycling sales, as strong tanker earnings keep older ships trading. Pakistan still leads, but without its August premium; Bangladesh is buying more steadily; India pays premiums for specialist and compliance-sensitive tonnage; and Turkey faces a weakening lira.

Southeast Asia & STS Operations

Malaysia · Singapore · Indonesia · Thailand · Vietnam — the Malacca-to-Pengerang corridor.

Three developments matter for our corridor this week. First, Singapore bunkers fell while Fujairah stayed high, widening the saving for Gulf–Asia vessels that bunker here. Second, the diesel shortage is now global, and China's export halt removes a major regional supplier, which supports clean-tanker demand in Asia. Third, Malaysian enforcement at the eastern OPL shows authorities are acting, and screening standards in our waters will be watched more closely.

STS & marine-services operating standard

DDS VIEW

Enforcement at the EOPL is good news for compliant operators: it raises the cost of cutting corners. If disruption continues, DDS expects more tonnage and cargo interest in this corridor, and our standard must hold as volumes rise.

DDS Freight Market Monitor

Independent DDS market sentiment — 1 = Weak | 2 = Soft | 3 = Balanced | 4 = Firm | 5 = Exceptionally Firm.

DDS Freight Sentiment Index, 2 October 2026 — DDS Marine's own analytical assessment, not a third-party benchmark.

DDS MARKET SIGNAL

Every tanker segment we track now scores 5/5, for the first time in this series. At this level the scale no longer separates the markets, so our focus shifts to which segment eases first. We expect VLCCs to be the first to ease if Hormuz traffic normalises, and product tankers to stay firm while the diesel shortage lasts.

DDS Gas & Regional Monitor

Publication note: DDS scores are independent analytical opinions, not third-party benchmarks or executable freight quotations.

Editorial note: no fresh period or time-charter fixtures were available to DDS for this issue; one publicly reported voyage fixture appears under Crude Tanker Market.

Seven-Day Outlook — 3 to 9 October 2026

Watch list:

• The OPEC+ meeting on 4 October, and whether any Gulf producer seeks a quota change as exports recover.
• The arrival of additional US forces, and whether it is followed by renewed strikes on Iran.
• The pace of the G7 release, and whether China resumes fuel exports in November.
• Whether the first segment eases off the top of the DDS scale, and which one.
• Whether Ship & Bunker, Integr8 and Bunker Index converge on Fujairah, and whether Integr8's Singapore figures update.

DDS CONCLUSION

Gulf exports are back near their highest since the war began, and so is the risk of shipping them. Diesel has replaced crude as the market's tightest point, which keeps product tankers firm and bunker costs volatile. With every segment at the top of our scale, the useful signal from here is the first sign of easing. We plan on ranges, corroborated figures and the risk we can see.

Sources & Disclaimer

DDS Weekly Maritime Intelligence combines public information, official releases, wire reporting carried by named outlets, and operator-focused analysis. Every price is shown with a stated cut-off and, where the source publishes one, a daily range. Where we hold more than one source for a benchmark, all are shown with the variance disclosed, and a figure is not relied on unless a second source supports it. DDS freight commentary is independent market analysis prepared from publicly available information, market-reported fixtures and operational intelligence. Proprietary third-party assessments are not reproduced unless authorised. DDS market sentiment indicators represent DDS Marine's own analytical assessment and are not third-party benchmarks.

What's changed since Issue 009 (25 September 2026): Middle East oil exports reached about 12.8m bpd in September and Yanbu loadings resumed, while three tankers were struck in Hormuz. The US is sending a third carrier group and more troops. China halted most October fuel exports and the G7 agreed a 100m-barrel reserve release. Brent eased to about US$102.50. Singapore VLSFO fell to US$789, and the Fujairah premium widened to US$158–191/mt on corroborated figures. Every tanker segment DDS tracks now scores 5/5. Iran's blacklist stands at 81 vessels. Risk level remains CRITICAL.

Disclaimer — this publication is for general information only and is not investment, legal, sanctions, insurance, technical, navigational or chartering advice. Market indications can change without notice. Users must independently verify all data and obtain appropriate professional advice before acting. DDS Marine Group accepts no liability for decisions made solely on the basis of this publication.