DDS Weekly Maritime Intelligence — Issue 011

This Week at a Glance

Iran has turned the recovery in Gulf exports into a target. At least 13 tankers were hit in and around Hormuz between 29 September and 6 October, the most in any week of the war, and on 7 October a tanker was struck 51 nautical miles off Qatar, the first attack that deep in the Gulf in nearly a month. Visible Hormuz transits fell to their lowest since July, yet Middle East crude exports held near pre-war levels because Saudi Arabia and others moved more oil out through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman coast. VLCC earnings set another record near US$1.4 million a day. Brent ended the week about 2% higher, helped by Hurricane Isaias shutting in US Gulf output. For our corridor: the attacks are now reaching LPG and LNG carriers and ships inside the Gulf, and Singapore fuel stocks are tight, with lead times of 10–15 days.

• Record attack week: at least 13 tankers hit 29 Sep–6 Oct; UKMTO logged 9 attacks in the first seven days of October, half of September's total.
• Gulf widens: the chemical/oil tanker Acers was struck off Qatar on 7 Oct with casualties reported; the LNG carrier Mystras and LPG carrier Gas Vela were also hit.
• Exports re-route: crude through Hormuz fell to about 10.1m bpd, while Red Sea and Gulf of Oman coast exports rose to 6.7m bpd (Kpler).
• Washington pauses: Trump says no US strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms; Iran is reviewing the US response to its seven-day reopening plan.
• Diesel relief: China resumed fuel exports and the US issued a temporary licence for Russian diesel, while Hurricane Isaias shut in over 60% of US Gulf oil output.

CORRECTION TO ISSUE 010

Issue 010 reported Singapore VLSFO at US$789/mt and a Fujairah premium of US$158–191/mt. Those figures came from a price page that was out of date. On corrected figures the Fujairah premium on 2 October was about US$85/mt. Details are in the Data Integrity & Correction section below.

CEO Market Commentary

Capt. Dinesh Naidu KC — Founder & Chairman, DDS Marine Group

"Exports found a way around the Strait. The attacks are now finding a way around the exports."

For two weeks we have written about Gulf exports recovering under fire. This week the fire increased. At least 13 tankers were struck in eight days, more than in any week since the war began, and the attacks spread: to an LNG carrier, to an LPG carrier, and on 7 October to a tanker 51 nautical miles off Qatar, deep inside the Gulf. On the On Peace alone, at least 12 of 19 crew were injured. These are seafarers doing their jobs, and their safety has to come first in every decision we make about routing and nomination.

The market's response tells us something important. Visible traffic through Hormuz fell to its lowest since July, yet total Middle East crude exports held near pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia pushed the East-West pipeline back up to 5.8 million barrels a day, and exports from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman coast rose to more than double their pre-war level. The oil is still moving; it is simply taking longer routes and more ships. That is why VLCC earnings set another record this week, near US$1.4 million a day.

Two developments may lower the temperature. President Trump says there will be no US strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterm elections, and Iran is reviewing the US response to its seven-day plan to reopen the Strait. Iran and Oman have also agreed coordinates for designated transit routes. None of this has yet changed what happens to ships on the water.

I also want to address a correction. In Issue 010 we reported a Fujairah premium of US$158–191 per tonne. Fresh checks this week show that one of our bunker sources was serving out-of-date prices, and the true premium was much smaller. The details are in our Data Integrity section. We publish corrections openly because the whole value of this report rests on readers being able to trust the numbers.

Publication Principle — Independent operational commentary based on publicly available information, official releases and wire reporting carried by named outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Seatrade Maritime, gCaptain, oilprice.com), plus DDS Marine's own market intelligence. Every figure in this issue carries its source and, where applicable, a stated data cut-off.

This Week in Review

The week's principal developments, 3–9 October 2026.

29 September – 8 October · Reuters / UKMTO / UANI / Seatrade — tanker attacks reach their highest weekly level of the war. Maritime security sources counted at least 12 attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers around Hormuz in the week to 5 October, the most of any week since the war began; UANI counts at least 13 between 29 September and 6 October. UKMTO reported nine attacks in the first seven days of October, half of September's total. Since the war began there have been 97 maritime incidents and 24 seafarer deaths (UANI, citing the IMO). See the Hormuz Attack Tracker below.

7–8 October · UKMTO / Seatrade / gCaptain / oilprice.com — tanker struck off Qatar, the deepest Gulf attack in nearly a month. The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged chemical/oil tanker Acers was hit by multiple projectiles about 51 nm north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, at around 19:00 UTC on 7 October. UKMTO reported casualties but has not given numbers, and has not attributed the attack. It is the first attack this deep in the Gulf since 9 September.

6–8 October · Reuters / Kpler / LSEG — Hormuz transits fall to a two-month low; exports shift to other routes. Kpler counted more than 20 commodity-vessel transits on 4 and 5 October, then 7 on 6 October, the lowest since 23 July, and 10 on 7 October. Crude through the Strait fell 27% from the previous week to about 10.1m bpd (74% of pre-war), but Red Sea and Gulf of Oman coast exports rose to 6.7m bpd, keeping total Middle East crude exports near pre-war levels.

6–8 October · oilprice.com / Gulf News / Reuters — Houthis hit Saudi airports; coalition strikes back; pipeline at 5.8m bpd. Houthi drones and missiles hit airports in Riyadh, Abha and Jazan; Saudi authorities reported three people killed and 36 injured. The Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed 82 Houthi targets. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said East-West pipeline flows had recovered to 5.8m bpd, denying reports of a new shutdown.

8–9 October · US News / AGBI / Trading Economics / oilprice.com — no US strikes before the midterms; diesel relief measures. President Trump said the US will not resume strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms, and Iran said it is reviewing the US response to its seven-day plan to reopen Hormuz. China resumed October fuel exports with a reported 3.7m-tonne quota, and the US issued a temporary licence for Russian diesel supplies (about 22.5m barrels, per Trading Economics). Hurricane Isaias shut in about 63% of US Gulf oil output on 8 October.

Hormuz Attack Tracker

Named attacks on tankers and gas carriers, 28 September – 7 October 2026.

Dates as reported; some UKMTO reports were issued late. Weekly attack counts from different sources use different time windows and should not be added together.

Pattern assessment: three changes this week. Gas carriers are now being hit as well as crude and product tankers; attacks have reached inside the Gulf, off Qatar; and none of the four ships hit on 3–5 October was on Iran's published blacklist (Seatrade). An attempted attack south of Mokha, Yemen, on 4 October was also reported (UANI). JMIC rates the threat as severe in Hormuz and moderate in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Data Integrity & Correction

A correction to Issue 010, and how this week's numbers were sourced.

CORRECTION TO ISSUE 010

Issue 010 reported Singapore VLSFO at US$789/mt and a Fujairah premium of US$158–191/mt, using Ship & Bunker's prices page. This week that page returned exactly the same figures as on 2 October, and its oil-price table was dated June, so the figures we used were almost certainly out of date. ENGINE's daily reports put Singapore VLSFO at an October average of about US$872 and at US$904 on 7 October, consistent with the US$895 Integr8 reported on 2 October, which we wrongly flagged as "possibly not updated". On Integr8's figures the 2 October premium was about US$85/mt. We withdraw the US$158–191 figure and the Ship & Bunker prices used in Issue 010, and apologise for the error.

New standing check. From this issue, before using any price page we confirm that it shows a current date or that its figures have changed since the previous week. A page whose figures are identical to the previous week across every port is treated as stale until proven otherwise. We failed to apply this check last week; it is now part of our standard process. Where only one source is available for a figure, the report now says so next to the figure.

What this does not change: DDS does not reproduce Baltic Exchange's proprietary index values or route assessments. Freight sentiment is expressed as an independent 1–5 DDS score. Where freight earnings are quoted, they are attributed to the named outlet that published them.

Global Oil Market

Friday bands across two public sources; contract month disclosed; cut-off Friday 9 October 2026.

Three forces met this week. The surge in tanker attacks and the deep-Gulf strike off Qatar added risk, and Brent rose more than 4% on 8 October. Hurricane Isaias then shut in about 63% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output, around 1.28m bpd, and threatened Gulf Coast refineries. Against that, President Trump ruled out US strikes on Iran before the midterms, China resumed fuel exports, and the US licensed Russian diesel supplies.

Diesel remains the tightest product. Shell reported a 75% jump in refining margins, and Europe's shortage worsened before the relief measures. Middle East crude, by contrast, is reaching buyers by longer routes. Vitol estimates about 12m bpd of crude and 2m bpd of fuels are leaving the Gulf. OPEC+ kept November output targets unchanged on 4 October.

DDS BASE CASE

Brent trades US$98–110. The midterm pause and diesel relief cap the upside; continued attacks and the hurricane support the floor.

Commercial effect on shipping: longer routes and more transfers keep tanker demand high. Budget for fuel and freight on a range, and allow for weather delays in the US Gulf.

Crude Tanker Market

VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax — DDS directional assessment, week ending 9 October 2026.

DDS Freight Sentiment Index — DDS Marine's own analytical assessment, not a third-party benchmark.

Where Middle East crude is leaving from. Crude through Hormuz fell to about 10.1m bpd, while exports from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman coast rose to about 6.7m bpd (Kpler via Reuters, 6–8 October), and East-West pipeline flows recovered to 5.8m bpd (Saudi energy minister via oilprice.com, 7 October).

VLCC. Bloomberg reported a record of about US$1.4m/day on the Gulf–East Asia route on 8 October, and one VLCC was reportedly offered US$82m for a voyage, about 50% more than three weeks earlier. Vitol's chief executive called the Hormuz shuttle "very inefficient" and said "there is really not quite enough shipping to go around." As exports move to the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman coast, voyages get longer and tonnage gets tighter.

Suezmax and Aframax. Fearnleys reports that smaller tanker classes show "no sign of slowing down", with "nowhere to hide right now". Asian refiners are reported to be cutting US crude purchases because of the freight cost.

DDS VIEW

No segment has come off the top of our scale yet. The attacks are making the shipping system less efficient, which pushes rates up, not down. The first easing is still most likely in VLCCs, if Hormuz traffic normalises.

Source basis: Bloomberg and Fearnleys (via oilprice.com), Kpler (via Reuters), and DDS Marine operational and commercial intelligence. Scores are based on public reporting and DDS enquiries. Directional only.

Clean & Product Tankers

DDS Clean Tanker Signal — directional assessment, week ending 9 October 2026.

Product tankers: relief measures add cargoes. Three diesel relief measures this week all need ships. China resumed fuel exports after a one-week halt, with a reported October quota of 3.7m tonnes. The US issued a temporary licence for Russian diesel, about 22.5m barrels. The G7 reserve release, half of it diesel, is being coordinated through the IEA. Each adds product-tanker voyages, so we expect product-tanker earnings to stay firm even as diesel prices ease.

The risk to watch is Hurricane Isaias. If Gulf Coast refineries are damaged, the US would need to import more products, which would tighten the Atlantic further.

DDS VIEW

Pacific and Atlantic MR both remain at the top of our scale. For our corridor, China's export restart is the most direct change: more regional product cargoes, and more STS and bunkering demand around Singapore and Malaysia.

Source basis: public reporting (oilprice.com, Reuters, Trading Economics) and DDS Marine operational and commercial intelligence. Directional only.

Bunker Market — Singapore & Fujairah

ENGINE and Bunker Index, 7–9 October 2026; Ship & Bunker not used this week.

Singapore: tight supply, not cheap fuel. Singapore VLSFO traded around US$904–905 on 7–8 October before falling US$24 on 9 October. ENGINE reports that most suppliers are low on stocks and that cargo arrivals are delayed by the Middle East conflict; advised lead times for VLSFO and HSFO are 10–15 days.

Monthly average VLSFO (ENGINE)

This changes the picture we gave last week. Singapore is not cheap; it is tight. Owners planning to bunker in our corridor should book early and confirm availability before relying on it.

The Fujairah Premium, Corrected

Daily Fujairah prices and the premium over Singapore across recent issues.

US$75–82, not widening. ENGINE put Fujairah VLSFO at US$82 above Singapore on 7 October and US$75 on 9 October. With last week's figure corrected to about US$85, the premium has been broadly stable at US$75–122 since mid-September rather than widening sharply. Fujairah's monthly average has nevertheless climbed from US$768 in July to about US$965 so far in October, and ENGINE describes availability there as "severely tight" across all grades.

What it means for buyers: bunkering in our corridor still saves about US$75–80/mt on VLSFO against Fujairah, but Singapore lead times of up to 15 days mean the saving only holds if the stem is booked early.

Compliance cost note: EU ETS exposure remains a separate line item on EU-linked voyages.

Geopolitical & Route Risk

Hormuz, the inner Gulf and the Red Sea.

The Strait is no longer the only front. Iran's attacks have followed the oil. As exports recovered, the pace of attacks rose; as ships moved to Omani-side corridors with transponders off, attacks continued there; and this week a tanker was hit inside the Gulf off Qatar. The US pause before the midterms lowers the risk of a wider war in the next four weeks but does nothing to stop attacks on merchant ships.

Hormuz commodity-vessel transits (Kpler): more than 20 on 4 and 5 October, 7 on 6 October (the lowest since 23 July) and 10 on 7 October, against a pre-war level of about 125 large vessels a day (Reuters).

DDS RISK LEVEL: CRITICAL (unchanged)

The threat now covers the inner Gulf, gas carriers and the Red Sea. Confirm war-risk terms at nomination for any Gulf call, not only Hormuz transits; brief crews on emergency procedures; and do not treat absence from Iran's blacklist as protection.

Sanctions & Compliance Watch

Developments — week ending 9 October 2026

US licence for Russian diesel, 9 October: at the President's direction, OFAC issued a temporary general licence allowing Russian diesel to be supplied to the global market. The volume cited is about 22.5m barrels. Check the exact terms and expiry of the licence before relying on it for any cargo.

Shadow-fleet designations, 8 October: UANI reports that OFAC sanctioned 22 shadow-fleet vessels, ten of them already on UANI's own watch list.

Iran's blacklist is not a guide to risk: none of the four ships attacked on 3–5 October was on the Persian Gulf Strait Authority list (Seatrade). Six Sinokor VLCCs are on the list, and two other Sinokor VLCCs were attacked.

US blockade: as of 5 October, US forces had redirected 130 vessels, disabled three and boarded two (UANI).

Direct operational implication for DDS: UANI reports 17 Iran-flagged cargo ships in or near Malaysia's eastern OPL anchorage on 8 October, together with four Iran-flagged tankers and about 22 shadow-fleet tankers, while at least 24 others have moved north. Three Iran-linked ships remain at Port Klang. Screening in our own waters remains essential.

Editorial & Verification Note: DDS Marine Group publishes vessel names and designation detail only where attributable to a named primary source. Readers should verify any specific vessel against the current OFAC SDN list and their own screening provider before acting.

Southeast Asia & STS Operations

Malaysia · Singapore · Indonesia · Thailand · Vietnam — the Malacca-to-Pengerang corridor.

Three developments matter for our corridor this week. First, Singapore fuel supply is tight: most suppliers are low on stock and advise lead times of 10–15 days for VLSFO and HSFO. Second, a Singapore-flagged LPG carrier, Gas Vela, was among the ships hit in Hormuz, so the risk now reaches vessels managed from our region. Third, China's fuel export restart should add product cargoes and STS work around Singapore and Malaysia.

STS & marine-services operating standard

DDS VIEW

Tight Singapore supply makes early planning more valuable. If disruption continues, DDS expects more tonnage and cargo interest in this corridor; operators who plan bunkers and STS together will avoid the longest delays.

DDS Freight Market Monitor

Independent DDS market sentiment — 1 = Weak | 2 = Soft | 3 = Balanced | 4 = Firm | 5 = Exceptionally Firm.

DDS Freight Sentiment Index, 9 October 2026 — DDS Marine's own analytical assessment, not a third-party benchmark.

DDS MARKET SIGNAL

Every tanker segment remains at 5/5 for a second week. The attacks have made shipping less efficient, which supports rates rather than weakening them. Gas carriers are now directly exposed, and we will watch whether that feeds into LNG and LPG freight.

DDS Gas & Regional Monitor

Publication note: DDS scores are independent analytical opinions, not third-party benchmarks or executable freight quotations.

Editorial note: no period or time-charter fixtures were available to DDS this week.

Seven-Day Outlook — 10 to 16 October 2026

Watch list:

• Iran's formal reply to the US response on its seven-day reopening plan, expected within days.
• Whether attacks continue inside the Gulf after the Acers strike off Qatar.
• How the Iran–Oman transit route coordinates are published and whether ships are told to use them.
• Damage to US Gulf Coast refineries from Hurricane Isaias.
• Singapore bunker lead times, and whether fresh cargo arrivals ease supply.

DDS CONCLUSION

Oil is still leaving the Gulf at close to pre-war levels, but by longer routes and under heavier attack. The attacks now reach gas carriers and the inner Gulf, and the risk to crews is the highest it has been. Freight stays at the top of our scale; Singapore bunkers are tight rather than cheap. We have corrected last week's bunker figures, and from now on we check every price source for staleness before using it.

Sources & Disclaimer

DDS Weekly Maritime Intelligence combines public information, official releases, wire reporting carried by named outlets, and operator-focused analysis. Every price is shown with a stated cut-off and, where the source publishes one, a range. Where we hold more than one source for a benchmark, all are shown with the variance disclosed; where only one source is available, we say so. A price page is not used unless its figures can be shown to be current. DDS freight commentary is independent market analysis; proprietary third-party assessments are not reproduced unless authorised. DDS market sentiment indicators represent DDS Marine's own analytical assessment and are not third-party benchmarks.

What's changed since Issue 010 (2 October 2026): at least 13 tankers were attacked in eight days, the most of any week of the war, including gas carriers and a tanker off Qatar. Hormuz transits fell to a two-month low while Red Sea and Gulf of Oman exports rose. VLCC earnings reached a reported record near US$1.4m/day. The US paused strikes until after the midterms. Hurricane Isaias shut in most US Gulf output. Brent rose about 2%. Issue 010's Singapore price and Fujairah premium are corrected: the premium is US$75–85, not US$158–191. Risk level remains CRITICAL.

Disclaimer — this publication is for general information only and is not investment, legal, sanctions, insurance, technical, navigational or chartering advice. Market indications can change without notice. Users must independently verify all data and obtain appropriate professional advice before acting. DDS Marine Group accepts no liability for decisions made solely on the basis of this publication.